Peter Burke
Chair
Oxford For Europe
7 June 2024
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Four weeks to go and can things get any worse for this Government?
Questions, questions…
What on earth possessed Mr Sunak to call an election for US Independence Day? Was it supposed to be symbolic? After all, many people are saying this man’s heart has been in California for a long time. Was it that he thought the party is readier now then it was on May 2, when he could’ve made the election coincide with the local ones? Ask his activists, I’m sure they would say no. Was it that he thought he could take advantage of the marginally better economic figures of the past few weeks? That would be making a mountain out of a molehill, and he knows it.
Or maybe it was that he thought things can only get worse in the next six months and he needs to pull the trigger while he is ahead? If so that is manna from heaven for the oppositions campaign. Was it just a death wish? Was it that he wanted to rush but also to honour the letter of his promise to wait until ‘the second half of the year’? Was it that he wants to be out of office in time for the start of the US school term? Or was it that he knew that the letters of no confidence to Sir Liam Brady were about to hit the critical number of 15%? Perhaps that is the most plausible explanation.
At all events, as of today, June 7th, we have just under four weeks to go.
Not just another minor gaffe….
Yesterday, June 6th, was the commemoration of D-Day. An incredibly important day in itself, all the more so because for most of the veterans attending it may well prove to be their last. It would seem that our Prime Minister fails to recognise this. He left the commemorations in Normandy early for no good reason. This has suddenly taken over the news agenda. Even the Telegraph’s comments are withering. Was he trying to signal his belief that the British part of the event was in some way more important than the international one? Or that standing in solidarity alongside Biden, Macron, Schulz and the other international leaders was less important than flying the flag for the UK or than his own flagging campaign? Was it his political death wish at work? Or was it simply what it looks, an unthinking gaffe on a scale to put in the shade the countless previous Sunak gaffes since the election was called? What is certain is that in one fell swoop he has wiped out any political benefits he will have gained from his right-wing voter base through his deeply misguided Rwanda plan.
A door has closed
While yesterday was D Day, today was Decision Day for the parties. It was the closing date for nominations or nomination withdrawals. All the parties are stuck with their choices now. How will that work out?
Well, for the Tories it seems increasingly clear that they have given themselves a headache. They were simply not ready. All but a very small inner circle would have been as dumbfounded as you and I by the announcement of the election. Many – not just Michael Gove and John Redwood - have done some serious soul-searching, and calculated their chance of survival as quite small, so have jumped before they were pushed. They have chosen to become ex-MPs by choice rather than through, to coin a phrase, the Will of the People. This has created vacancies which constituency parties were presumedly not expecting to have fill in quite such haste. Will this lead to the selection of good candidates? I suspect not. The existence of Lee Anderson and other Tory Red Wall nominees, I think, bears witness to the fact that the Tories are capable of getting it wrong even when not pressured for time. But when they are, who can say what we will see on the ballot paper?
For Labour there is different, but perhaps equally thorny, problem, and this is highlighted by the recent car crash by-election in Rochdale. I have no doubt that in retrospect Starmer would prefer to have seen as MP for Rochdale the otherwise popular and respected Azhar Ali, who happened to be guilty of an acknowledged public faux pas, than George Galloway. Galloway could, if he chose, use his formidable oratorial skills constructively, but sadly seems firmly committed to do the reverse. And having seen him in action in Oxford twice, I can understand why people find the man so plausible and why he has such wrecking power.
Having made the decision he did over Rochdale, Starmer for the sake of consistency will now feel obliged to similarly de-select candidates who have skeletons in the cupboard. And do you doubt for one second that the right wing press has been collecting evidence over the past few months and waiting until today, as the polls have closed, to weaponise it? Are we at risk of seeing multiple candidates listed as Labour on the ballot paper, but without the wholehearted support of the party leader? Taken together with the self-inflicted wound of Gaza, and with the Tory interventions in the Elections Act 2022 to bias the poll in their favour, could that possibly endanger what still looks like an unassailable Labour lead?
Oh for a fair election
Nationally this could also be a time of massive change. The same is true in Oxfordshire. While the smart money is on the two Oxford city constituencies remaining as they are, there is a serious possibility of any, or possibly even all, the currently blue rural constituencies in the county changing hands. According to the most recent YouGov data, the most serious challenge to the Conservatives comes from Labour in Banbury and from the Liberal Democrats in the other four county constituencies. This poses many voters with the dilemma of whether they should vote tactically – as recommended by Compass - or vote with their conscience. This is not always an easy one to resolve. It should in reality never be a dilemma, because if we had a fair voting system using PR, every voter could support the party of their choice and still be confident that their vote would count.
It is salutary to reflect that, although we can all look forward to voting on the 4th of July, had there been any justice in the world we would be voting this week in the European Parliament elections, as most of our neighbour are doing. I am in Dublin just now, and everywhere there are EP election posters. I often consider the fact that the last major election in which I took part in which my voice really counted was in the summer of 2019, the U.K.’s last participation in European Parliamentary elections. The use of the D’Hondt system of proportional representation meant that there was no EP constituency in which votes were wasted. Here in the South East we elected ten MEPs - admittedly including Nigel Farage and Daniel Hannon - but nobody could claim that the outcome was predetermined. If only the same could be said of many Westminster seats. Even now, with so much change in the air, the real battle will be fought in at most half the total seats in Parliament. Surely it is time to give every voter a chance and Make Votes Matter? If you are wondering the same thing, think about coming to the MVM public meeting in Oxford on 20th June.
Come to the hustings
Oxford for Europe is a committedly non-party political organisation, and it is not for us to promote the interest of one party over another. However, we cannot help noticing the conspiracy of silence over Europe from the main English parties. Do we have to rely on the SNP or the Greens to speak up for the EU? What we can do is go to as many hustings as possible, challenging the candidates over their European credentials, and applauding those who are prepared to tell the truth about what Brexit has meant for the country.
Independence Day
So the choice of July 4th may or may not have been accidental. Will it bring changes? If it does will that make it the UK’s own Independence Day? You may think that, but I couldn’t possibly comment.
The views expressed here are the author’s own and not necessarily representative of Oxford for Europe
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